The effect of uncertainty in whole building simulation models for purposes of generating control strategies

Buildings consume a significant amount of energy worldwide in maintaining comfort for occupants. Building energy management systems (BEMS) are employed to ensure that the energy consumed is used efficiently. However these systems often do not adequately perform in minimising energy use. This is due to a number of reasons, including poor configuration or a lack of information such as being able to anticipate changes in weather conditions. We are now at the stage that building behaviour can be simulated, whereby simulation tools can be used to predict building conditions, and therefore enable buildings to use energy more efficiently, when integrated with BEMS. What is required though, is an accurate model of the building which can effectively represent the building processes, for building simulation. Building information modelling (BIM) is a relatively new method of representing building models, however there still remains the issue of data translation between a BIM and simulation model, which requires calibration with a measured set of data. If there a lack of information or a poor translation, a level of uncertaintly is introduced which can affect the simulation’s ability to accurate predict control strategies for BEMS. This paper explores effects of uncertainty, by making assumptions on a building model due to a lack of information. It will be shown that building model calibration as a method of addressing uncertainty is no substitute for a well defined model

Probabilistic computing with future deep sub-micrometer devices: a modelling approach

An approach is described that investigates the potential of probabilistic "neural" architectures for computation with deep sub-micrometer (DSM) MOSFETs. Initially, noisy MOSFET models are based upon those for a 0.35 /spl mu/m MOS technology with an exaggerated 1/f characteristic. We explore the manifestation of the 1/f characteristic at the output of a 2-quadrant multiplier when the key n-channel MOSFETs are replaced by "noisy" MOSFETs. The stochastic behavior of this noisy multiplier has been mapped on to a software (Matlab) model of a continuous restricted Boltzmann machine (CRBM) - an analogue-input stochastic computing structure. Simulation of this DSM CRBM implementation shows little degradation from that of a "perfect" CRBM. This paper thus introduces a methodology for a form of "technology-downstreaming" and highlights the potential of probabilistic architectures for DSM computation

Master agreement task order 2 - Analyses and limited evaluations of payload and landing system structures for the survivable soft landing of instrument payloads

Computer programs for analysis and evaluation of payload and landing system structures for soft landing of instrument package

Changes in catch rates and length and age at maturity, but not growth, of an estuarine plotosid (Cnidoglanis macrocephalus) after heavy fishing

The hypothesis that heavy fishing pressure has led to changes in the biological characteristics of the estuary cobbler (Cnidoglanis macrocephalus) was tested in a large seasonally open estuary in southwestern Australia, where this species completes its life cycle and is the most valuable commercial fish species. Comparisons were made between seasonal data collected for this plotosid (eeltail catfish) in Wilson Inlet during 2005–08 and those recorded with the same fishery-independent sampling regime during 1987–89. These comparisons show that the proportions of larger and older individuals and the catch rates in the more recent period were far lower, i.e., they constituted reductions of 40% for fish ≥430 mm total length, 62% for fish ≥4 years of age, and 80% for catch rate. In addition, total mortality and fishing-induced mortality estimates increased by factors of ~2 and 2.5, respectively. The indications that the abundance and proportion of older C. macrocephalus declined between the two periods are consistent with the perception of long-term commercial fishermen and their shift toward using a smaller maximum gill net mesh to target this species. The sustained heavy fishing pressure on C. macrocephalus between 1987–89 and 2005–08 was accompanied by a marked reduction in length and age at maturity of this species. The shift in probabilistic maturation reaction norms toward smaller fish in 2005–08 and the lack of a conspicuous change in growth between the two periods indicate that the maturity changes were related to fishery-induced evolution rather than to compensatory responses to reduced fish densities

Issues Around Researching OHS of Samoan Migrant Workers

Workers from Pacific nations constitute a substantial proportion of the labour force in NZ, particularly in Auckland, which has one of the largest concentrations of Pacific Island workers in the world. Samoans constitute the largest Pacific ethnic group in NZ, comprising 131,103 or 49% of the resident Pacific population (265,974) (Statistics NZ, 2010). However, Pacific Island workers in NZ are typically employed in low paid, precarious, hazardous work that often has little chance of advancement. There is also some evidence that Pacific Island workers are over­represented in NZ’s work­related injury and illness statistics (Allen & Clarke, 2006). While occupational health and safety (OHS) of Pacific Island migrant workers highlights a number of issues, studies often provide inadequate explanations of what exactly is occurring or fully capture the working experiences of Pacific Island migrant workers. This paper reports on the initial work undertaken as part of an international collaborative study located in Samoa and NZ, aimed at investigating the OHS experiences of Samoan migrant workers. In particular, the paper presents a multi­layered framework and a set of research principles that can be used to illuminate often inaccessible populations located in changing working and living environments. Finally, this study exemplifies the complex issues surrounding the migrant workers’ health and safety, workers’ compensation and rehabilitation

A cross-sectional study of factors associated with dog ownership in Tanzania

Background: Mass vaccination of owned domestic dogs is crucial for the control of rabies in sub-Saharan Africa. Knowledge of the proportion of households which own dogs, and of the factors associated with dog ownership, is important for the planning and implementation of rabies awareness and dog vaccination programmes, and for the promotion of responsible dog ownership. This paper reports the results of a cross-sectional study of dog ownership by households in urban and rural communities in the United Republic of Tanzania. Results: Fourteen percent (202) of 1,471 households surveyed were identified as dog-owning, with an average of 2.4 dogs per dog-owning household. The percentage of dog-owning households was highest in inland rural areas (24%) and lowest in coastal urban communities (7%). The overall human: dog ratio was 14: 1. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that households which owned cattle, sheep or goats were much more likely to own dogs than households with no livestock. Muslim households were less likely to own dogs than Christian households, although this effect of religion was not seen among livestock-owning households. Households were more likely to own a dog if the head of the household was male; if they owned a cat; or if they owned poultry. Dog ownership was also broadly associated with larger, wealthier households. Conclusion: The human: dog ratios in Tanzania are similar to those reported elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa, although cultural and geographic variation is evident. Estimation of the number of owned dogs, and identification of household predictors of dog ownership, will enable targeted planning of rabies control effort

Changing incidence and characteristics of non-tuberculous mycobacterial infections in Scotland and comparison with Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex incidence (2011 to 2019)

BACKGROUND: An increase in infections with nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) has been noted globally, and their incidence has overtaken that of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBc) in many countries. Using data from a national reference laboratory, we aimed to determine if this trend could be observed in Scotland. METHODS: We undertook a retrospective review of all NTM isolates received by the Scottish Mycobacteria Reference Laboratory (SMRL) over 9 years from 2011 to 2019 inclusive. Clinical episodes were defined as per 2017 British Thoracic Society and 2020 American Thoracic Society/European Respiratory Society/European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases/Infectious Diseases Society of America NTM guidelines. These rates were compared with Scottish tuberculosis rates over the same period. RESULTS: Of 8552 NTM isolates from 4586 patients in 2011 to 2019, 7739 (90.5%) were considered clinically relevant. These represented 2409 episodes of NTM infection, with M. avium, M. intracellulare, and M. abscessus complex being most common. A total of 1953 (81.1%) were pulmonary NTM infection episodes from 1470 patients and 456 extrapulmonary episodes from 370 patients. We estimated a rise in incidence from 3.4 to 6.5 per 100 000 person-years (2011–2019 inclusive), with an increase in NTM incidence over MTBc incidence in Scotland by 2017. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of NTM infection in Scotland has overtaken MTBc incidence. NTM infection leads to a costly health care burden, possibly as much as UK£1.47 million (US$ and €1.73 million) annually. We recommend standardization of isolate referral with clinical surveillance and implementation of agreed standards of care delivered through multidisciplinary teams. This would improve diagnosis and patient management as well as assessment of diagnostics and novel treatments through clinical trials

Rabies in Endangered Ethiopian Wolves

With rabies emerging as a particular threat to wild canids, we report on a rabies outbreak in a subpopulation of endangered Ethiopian wolves in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia, in 2003 and 2004. Parenteral vaccination of wolves was used to manage the outbreak

Shipping regulations lead to large reduction in cloud perturbations

Global shipping accounts for 13% of global emissions of SO2, which, once oxidized to sulfate aerosol, acts to cool the planet both directly by scattering sunlight and indirectly by increasing the albedo of clouds. This cooling due to sulfate aerosol offsets some of the warming effect of greenhouse gasses and is the largest uncertainty in determining the change in the Earth’s radiative balance by human activity. Ship tracks—the visible manifestation of the indirect of effect of ship emissions on clouds as quasi-linear features—have long provided an opportunity to quantify these effects. However, they have been arduous to catalog and typically studied only in particular regions for short periods of time. Using a machine-learning algorithm to automate their detection we catalog more than 1 million ship tracks to provide a global climatology. We use this to investigate the effect of stringent fuel regulations introduced by the International Maritime Organization in 2020 on their global prevalence since then, while accounting for the disruption in global commerce caused by COVID-19. We find a marked, but clearly nonlinear, decline in ship tracks globally: An 80% reduction in SOx emissions causes only a 25% reduction in the number of tracks detected